Landscape Scenario Archetypes for Desertification-Prone Oases: A Resilience Framework for the Drâa Valley

Salwa Alhejazi; Carlotta Fontana

doi:10.38027/mediterranean-cities_vol6no1_1

Authors

Salwa Alhejazi Sustainable Architecture and Landscape Design, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy https://orcid.org/0009-0006-6612-9511
Carlotta Fontana Department of Architecture and Urban Studies (DAStU), Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0079-1354

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38027/mediterranean-cities_vol6no1_1

Keywords:

Landscape Scenario Archetypes, Desertification, Oasis Resilience, STEEP Drivers, Participatory Planning

Abstract

Oasis regions in southern Morocco are increasingly under the threat of desertification, water scarcity and socio-economic pressures that undermine their long-term resilience. This study develops landscape scenario archetypes as an operational framework that links future scenarios with spatial design for the desertification-prone Drâa Valley, in order to address the gap between scenario narratives and implementable landscape strategies. The methodology integrates STEEP trend analysis, impact–uncertainty prioritisation and landscape assessment, along with a two-component online participatory survey in M’hamid oasis. Forty-seven drivers were identified and prioritised, structuring four contrasting socio-ecological scenarios, namely Oasis Minimisation, Oasis Emancipation, Rural Abandonment and Rural Refuge. These scenarios were translated into scenario-specific spatial design principles through a landscape building-block framework and compared through a multi-criteria assessment. The respondents consistently preferred futures that combine traditional oasification practices along with contemporary landscape strategies. Landscape scenario archetypes provide a transferable mechanism that aids in translating uncertainty into design action, supporting resilience-oriented planning, water management and adaptive capacity in desertifying oasis regions.

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